There is an active and polarising debate about whether Bayesian priors should be used in MMM. Broadly speaking there is a progressive group of academics and practitioners who argue that the use of Bayesian prior values, effectively applying guideline results bounds to your model, makes models more flexible and insightful. And on the other side … Read More
Marketing Effectiveness
How reliable is your marketing mix model (MMM)?
Can you trust your MMM? A marketing Mix Model (MMM) can produce challenging results, especially if you have been relying on last touch( LT) attribution. When presented with challenging results your first question may well be “can I trust the model?”. The answer to this depends largely on the quality of the model as expressed … Read More
UK Media Adspend and Revenue Forecasts 2026
In this article, we ask how the UK media spend landscape might look as we move through 2025 and into 2026. We use publicly available AA WARC adspend data as a reliable source for baseline spend levels, and we use our own modelling to identify and extend underlying trends to forecast 2026 spends by channel. … Read More
Techniques to evaluate marketing uplift experiments
Experiments are an important way to validate marketing effectiveness measurement. This post will take you through some approaches to evaluating marketing uplift experiments. Let’s assume you run a test TV / VOD campaign over 4 weeks in March 2025. How can you measure the sales revenue uplift it created? In this post, we’ll look at … Read More
What is incrementality in marketing – extracting trend, seasonality and brand equity
Marketing incrementality is sales revenue that is over and above that which might be expected with no marketing activity. Establishing incrementality is critical if you want genuine brand growth. Why? Because many performance platforms collect, report and even double-count sales from multiple sources, including those which might happen even if you didn’t run any activity. … Read More
Brand fame; what it is, what it delivers and how to build it.
Let’s take a closer look at why brand fame is such an important part of building brands In this POV originally written for mSix & Partners, I explore brand fame; what it is, what it delivers and how to build it. We are assisted by insight from some of advertising’s leading thinkers; Paul … Read More
Why digital media attribution could be compromising your media ROI
You’ve probably heard the expression ‘The devil is in the detail‘. It tells us that focusing on detail is the way to solve problems. In many ways, this expression is true, but in this post I’d like to argue that placing too much focus on the digital detail can mean marketers and their agencies miss … Read More
What are the 4Ps of the Marketing Mix
The 4Ps are one of the key concepts that underpin marketing strategy and tactics. The Ps stand for Product, Price, Place and Promotion. They were conceptualised by the distinguished US marketing and research academic, E Jerome McCarthy. Before we look at the 4Ps in detail let’s summarise the difference between strategy and tactics: Strategy: Sets … Read More
Why we must learn to build brands in digital media
In this article, written for the mSix’s website, I highlight how digital media has passed the tipping point and why marketers must evolve beyond the simplistic ‘long and short duopoly’ and use digital media to build brand fame as well as driving performance. The time is right to challenge and develop the original works of … Read More
Towards Attention Metrics by Media Channel
Research into attention to advertising is going to drive a rethink in how we view media channels Attention metrics concern the degree of attention consumers give to different advertising media channels. This is important if we accept that higher attention is likely to lead to higher cognition and memory retention. The value of attention isn’t … Read More
Exploring the Carbon Cost of Advertising
How much CO2 is generated by advertising media and the agencies providing the associated services? Forbes recently analysed the carbon footprint of agencies in the US and found that the key drivers are travel, commuting, office supplies, marketing collateral, utilities, shipping and computer services [1]. Within this, we can take a closer look at the … Read More
Maximising Media Effectiveness and Efficiency
This is a piece I wrote for an m/SIX newsletter in January 2022. Effectiveness and efficiency are not the same but they are both critical in media strategy, planning and activation Intro Marketing effectiveness and campaign efficiency are intertwined terms across the open plan workspaces of both advertisers and agencies. But they mean very different … Read More
Six pioneers of marketing effectiveness past and present
I recently wrote this piece for an m/SIX newsletter – it summarises the contribution of six people to the development of marketing effectiveness. SIX pioneers of marketing effectiveness past and present 1. Claude Hopkins, the copywriter who earned $2.7m per year selling Bissell vacuum cleaners We all talk about market effectiveness and marketing science, but … Read More
What is Marketing Mix Modelling (MMM)?
Marketing Mix Modelling or MMM is a regression-based approach to identifying the drivers of sales for a business or brand – making it a form of attribution. For many advertisers it is used to understand and optimise the effects of paid media in generating short and medium term sales outcomes. Unlike many other forms of … Read More
Does excess share of voice (eSOV) guarantee brand sales growth?
Excess share of voice (eSOV) is an important concept in marketing and media investment planning. The “excess” represents the degree to which your brand’s share of voice exceeds its share of market. Numerous studies have examined this relationship and consistently found that an excess share of voice over share of market is likely to result … Read More
Adstock and Diminishing Returns: non-linear advertising effects
Adstock is an important concept in marketing effectiveness. It was first quantified by Simon Broadbent in the 1970s. Its value lies in helping make marketing and media mix models more accurate by recognising that advertising and media investments have non-linear “carryover” response effects. These non-linear effects are normally grouped into two areas: the delayed effect … Read More